Final tracked odds
As of October 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 76%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Economy · tracked since September 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 27, 2026
76%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 76% | 76% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 76% |
| 2026-10-26 | 76% |
| 2026-10-25 | 78% |
| 2026-10-24 | 75% |
| 2026-10-23 | 78% |
| 2026-10-22 | 76% |
| 2026-10-21 | 80% |
| 2026-10-20 | 82% |
| 2026-10-19 | 80% |
| 2026-10-18 | 78% |
| 2026-10-17 | 78% |
| 2026-10-16 | 80% |
| 2026-10-15 | 86% |
| 2026-09-22 | 86% |
| 2026-09-20 | 86% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 76%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 86% on September 20, 2026 to 76% on October 27, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 75% and 86%. The final reading of 76% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Another Fed rate hike in 2026” for 15 days, since September 20, 2026. As of October 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 76%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 86% to 76%, ranging between 75% and 86% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 27, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.