Final tracked odds
As of August 17, 2026, market-consensus odds make 1.6% to 2.0% the most likely outcome at 14%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
GDP growth in 2035?
Economy · tracked since July 29, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 17, 2026
14%
How the odds have moved
1.6% to 2.0%2.6% to 3.0%2.1% to 2.5%0.0% or Below1.1% to 1.5%
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 16 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6% to 2.0% | 14% | 14% | — |
| 2.6% to 3.0% | 10% | 11% | ▲ 1 |
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 10% | 11% | ▲ 1 |
| 0.0% or Below | 10% | 10% | — |
| 1.1% to 1.5% | 8% | 9% | — |
| 3.6% to 4.0% | 8% | 8% | ▼ 1 |
| 0.6% to 1.0% | 7% | 7% | — |
| 4.1% to 4.5% | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | 1.6% to 2.0% | 2.6% to 3.0% | 2.1% to 2.5% | 0.0% or Below | 1.1% to 1.5% | 3.6% to 4.0% | 0.6% to 1.0% | 4.1% to 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | 14% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% |
| 2026-08-16 | 14% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% |
| 2026-08-11 | 12% | 8% | 8% | 13% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% |
| 2026-08-10 | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 6% |
| 2026-08-09 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-08 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-07 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-06 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-05 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-04 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-03 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-02 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-08-01 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-07-31 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 2026-07-30 | 8% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% |
| 2026-07-29 | 8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 * | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | — | 8% | 5% | 8% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- GDP growth in 2035 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 17, 2026, 1.6% to 2.0% led at 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- GDP growth in 2035 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 16 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on July 29, 2026 to 14% on August 17, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- GDP growth in 2035 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 16 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 14%. The final reading of 14% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “GDP growth in 2035” for 16 days, since July 29, 2026. As of August 17, 2026, 1.6% to 2.0% leads the field at 14%. The final tracked chance for 1.6% to 2.0% has risen from 8% to 14%, ranging between 8% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.