Final tracked odds
As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 78%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 3, 2026
78%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 150 | 82% | 78% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Above 150 |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 78% |
| 2026-08-02 | 82% |
| 2026-08-01 | 74% |
| 2026-07-31 | 72% |
| 2026-07-30 | 74% |
| 2026-07-29 | 73% |
| 2026-07-28 | 78% |
| 2026-07-27 | 77% |
| 2026-07-26 | 76% |
| 2026-07-25 | 75% |
| 2026-07-24 | 76% |
| 2026-07-23 | 74% |
| 2026-07-22 | 76% |
| 2026-07-21 | 68% |
| 2026-07-20 | 80% |
| 2026-07-19 | 76% |
| 2026-07-18 | 76% |
| 2026-07-17 | 74% |
| 2026-07-16 | 76% |
| 2026-07-15 | 70% |
| 2026-07-14 | 74% |
| 2026-07-13 | 70% |
| 2026-07-12 | 66% |
| 2026-07-11 | 68% |
| 2026-07-10 | 55% |
| 2026-07-09 | 54% |
| 2026-07-08 | 52% |
| 2026-07-07 | 52% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 78%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 28 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 52% on July 7, 2026 to 78% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 26 points.
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 28 tracked days the odds ranged between 52% and 82%. The final reading of 78% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026” for 28 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 78%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 52% to 78%, ranging between 52% and 82% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.