Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 65%.
▼ 4 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Politics · tracked since September 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
65%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 69% | 65% | ▼ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 65% |
| 2026-09-08 | 69% |
| 2026-09-07 | 67% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 65%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 67% on September 7, 2026 to 65% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30” for 3 days, since September 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 65%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 67% to 65%, ranging between 65% and 69% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.