Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 23%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 11, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
23%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 23% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 23% |
| 2026-08-30 | 24% |
| 2026-08-29 | 24% |
| 2026-08-28 | 24% |
| 2026-08-27 | 24% |
| 2026-08-26 | 24% |
| 2026-08-25 | 24% |
| 2026-08-24 | 24% |
| 2026-08-23 | 25% |
| 2026-07-30 | 30% |
| 2026-07-29 | 32% |
| 2026-07-28 | 32% |
| 2026-07-26 | 31% |
| 2026-07-25 | 30% |
| 2026-07-24 | 34% |
| 2026-07-23 | 34% |
| 2026-07-22 | 36% |
| 2026-07-21 | 37% |
| 2026-07-20 | 40% |
| 2026-07-19 | 42% |
| 2026-07-18 | 40% |
| 2026-07-17 | 44% |
| 2026-07-16 | 42% |
| 2026-07-15 | 42% |
| 2026-07-14 | 48% |
| 2026-07-13 | 46% |
| 2026-07-12 | 56% |
| 2026-07-11 | 48% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Kash Patel out by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 23%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Kash Patel out by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 28 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 48% on July 11, 2026 to 23% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 25 points.
- Kash Patel out by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 28 tracked days the odds ranged between 23% and 56%. The final reading of 23% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Kash Patel out by December 31” for 28 days, since July 11, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 23%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 48% to 23%, ranging between 23% and 56% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.