Final tracked odds
As of October 22, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.9%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?
Everything Else · tracked since October 5, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 22, 2026
0.9%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 21 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.7% | 0.9% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-21 | 0.7% |
| 2026-10-20 | 0.8% |
| 2026-10-19 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-18 | 0.8% |
| 2026-10-17 | 0.8% |
| 2026-10-16 | 1.4% |
| 2026-10-05 | 1.0% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 22, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 8 tracked days the odds held near 1.0%, ending at 0.9% on October 22, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31” for 8 days, since October 5, 2026. As of October 22, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.9%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 1.0% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 22, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.