Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses — how much did the odds move?

Barely. Across 5 tracked days the odds held near 10%, ending at 10% on September 28, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since September 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026

10%

Final tracked odds

As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.

▼ 4 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 10% on September 28, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 22	Today	Move
Rogers wins, Collins loses	14%	10%	▼ 4

Full history table

Date	Rogers wins, Collins loses
2026-09-28	10%
2026-09-22	14%
2026-09-21	15%
2026-09-17	12%
2026-09-16	10%
2026-09-15 *	20%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses — how much did the odds move?: Barely. Across 5 tracked days the odds held near 10%, ending at 10% on September 28, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses” for 5 days, since September 16, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 10%, ranging between 10% and 15% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.