Final tracked odds
As of August 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 24%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Politics · tracked since July 26, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 12, 2026
24%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 7 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 27% | 24% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | 24% |
| 2026-08-07 | 27% |
| 2026-08-06 | 28% |
| 2026-08-05 | 28% |
| 2026-08-04 | 28% |
| 2026-08-03 | 28% |
| 2026-08-02 | 34% |
| 2026-08-01 | 36% |
| 2026-07-31 | 32% |
| 2026-07-30 | 30% |
| 2026-07-29 | 30% |
| 2026-07-28 | 30% |
| 2026-07-27 | 30% |
| 2026-07-26 | 38% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 14 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on July 26, 2026 to 24% on August 12, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 14 tracked days the odds ranged between 24% and 38%. The final reading of 24% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends” for 14 days, since July 26, 2026. As of August 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 24%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 38% to 24%, ranging between 24% and 38% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 12, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.