Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on July 12, 2026 to 3% on August 8, 2026 — a change of 13 points.

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 3% and 16%. The final reading of 3% sits at the bottom of that range.

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 8, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of August 8, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 8 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 7	Today	Move
Yes	3%	3%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-08	3%
2026-08-07	3%
2026-08-06	4%
2026-08-05	4%
2026-07-14	12%
2026-07-12	16%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on July 12, 2026 to 3% on August 8, 2026 — a change of 13 points.
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 3% and 16%. The final reading of 3% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31” for 6 days, since July 12, 2026. As of August 8, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 16% to 3%, ranging between 3% and 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 8, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.