Final tracked odds
As of August 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 26%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 2, 2026
26%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26% | 26% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | 26% |
| 2026-08-01 | 26% |
| 2026-07-31 | 28% |
| 2026-07-30 | 26% |
| 2026-07-29 | 22% |
| 2026-07-28 | 26% |
| 2026-07-27 | 28% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 26%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on July 27, 2026 to 26% on August 2, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 28%. The final reading of 26% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026” for 7 days, since July 27, 2026. As of August 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 26%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 28% to 26%, ranging between 22% and 28% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.