Final tracked odds
As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 12%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 4, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 19, 2026
12%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 12% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 12% |
| 2026-08-18 | 12% |
| 2026-08-06 | 13% |
| 2026-08-05 | 14% |
| 2026-08-04 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 12%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on August 4, 2026 to 12% on August 19, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026” for 5 days, since August 4, 2026. As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 12%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 12%, ranging between 12% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.