Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 44%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 70% on September 29, 2026 to 44% on October 31, 2026 — a change of 26 points.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 44% and 70%. The final reading of 44% sits at the bottom of that range.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 29, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 31, 2026

44%

Final tracked odds

As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 44%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 25 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 30	Today	Move
Yes	46%	44%	▼ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-10-31	44%
2026-10-30	46%
2026-10-29	48%
2026-09-29	70%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 44%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 70% on September 29, 2026 to 44% on October 31, 2026 — a change of 26 points.
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 44% and 70%. The final reading of 44% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026” for 4 days, since September 29, 2026. As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 44%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 70% to 44%, ranging between 44% and 70% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.