The Morning Line

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026

68%

Final tracked odds

As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 68%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 19Aug 11Sep 2Sep 25Nov 3Yes — Jul 19: 72%Yes — Nov 3: 68%68%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeNov 2TodayMove
Yes68%68%—
Full history table
DateYes
2026-11-0368%
2026-11-0268%
2026-11-0163%
2026-10-3168%
2026-10-3068%
2026-10-2972%
2026-10-2873%
2026-10-2762%
2026-10-2667%
2026-10-2568%
2026-10-2464%
2026-10-2365%
2026-10-2266%
2026-10-0472%
2026-10-0373%
2026-10-0274%
2026-10-0174%
2026-09-3074%
2026-09-2967%
2026-09-2864%
2026-09-2768%
2026-09-2667%
2026-09-2556%
2026-09-2472%
2026-09-2372%
2026-09-2278%
2026-09-2178%
2026-09-2079%
2026-09-1984%
2026-09-1884%
2026-09-1784%
2026-09-1684%
2026-09-1584%
2026-09-1493%
2026-09-1393%
2026-09-1294%
2026-09-1194%
2026-09-1094%
2026-09-0994%
2026-09-0894%
2026-09-0794%
2026-09-0688%
2026-09-0587%
2026-09-0487%
2026-09-0386%
2026-09-0284%
2026-09-0176%
2026-08-3176%
2026-08-3076%
2026-08-2976%
2026-08-2876%
2026-08-2776%
2026-08-2676%
2026-08-2576%
2026-08-2476%
2026-08-2376%
2026-08-2276%
2026-08-2176%
2026-08-2076%
2026-08-1976%
2026-08-1876%
2026-08-1776%
2026-08-1676%
2026-08-1576%
2026-08-1475%
2026-08-1376%
2026-08-1272%
2026-08-1172%
2026-08-1072%
2026-08-0972%
2026-08-0872%
2026-08-0772%
2026-08-0672%
2026-08-0572%
2026-08-0472%
2026-08-0372%
2026-08-0272%
2026-07-3172%
2026-07-3072%
2026-07-2972%
2026-07-2872%
2026-07-2774%
2026-07-2674%
2026-07-2574%
2026-07-2474%
2026-07-2374%
2026-07-2274%
2026-07-2173%
2026-07-2072%
2026-07-1972%
2026-07-1872%
2026-07-1772%
2026-07-1672%
2026-07-1572%
2026-07-1472%
2026-07-1372%
2026-07-1272%
2026-07-1172%
2026-07-1072%
2026-07-0972%
2026-07-0872%
2026-07-0773%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 68%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T — did the odds go up or down?
Down. Over the 102 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 73% on July 7, 2026 to 68% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 102 tracked days the odds ranged between 56% and 94%. The final reading of 68% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T” for 102 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 68%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 73% to 68%, ranging between 56% and 94% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.