Final tracked odds
As of August 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 30, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 6% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 6% |
| 2026-08-29 | 8% |
| 2026-08-28 | 8% |
| 2026-08-27 | 8% |
| 2026-08-26 | 8% |
| 2026-08-25 | 8% |
| 2026-08-24 | 8% |
| 2026-08-23 | 8% |
| 2026-08-22 | 8% |
| 2026-08-21 | 8% |
| 2026-08-20 | 8% |
| 2026-08-19 | 8% |
| 2026-08-18 | 8% |
| 2026-08-17 | 8% |
| 2026-08-16 | 9% |
| 2026-08-15 | 10% |
| 2026-08-14 | 10% |
| 2026-08-13 | 10% |
| 2026-08-12 | 10% |
| 2026-08-11 | 11% |
| 2026-08-10 | 10% |
| 2026-08-09 | 10% |
| 2026-08-08 | 10% |
| 2026-08-07 | 10% |
| 2026-08-03 | 12% |
| 2026-08-02 | 12% |
| 2026-08-01 | 11% |
| 2026-07-31 | 10% |
| 2026-07-30 | 11% |
| 2026-07-29 | 12% |
| 2026-07-28 | 12% |
| 2026-07-27 | 12% |
| 2026-07-20 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 33 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on July 20, 2026 to 6% on August 30, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 33 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 12%. The final reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026” for 33 days, since July 20, 2026. As of August 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.