Final tracked odds
As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Everything Else · tracked since August 25, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 31, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | 6% |
| 2026-10-30 | 6% |
| 2026-10-29 | 6% |
| 2026-10-28 | 6% |
| 2026-10-27 | 6% |
| 2026-10-26 | 6% |
| 2026-10-25 | 6% |
| 2026-10-24 | 6% |
| 2026-10-23 | 6% |
| 2026-10-22 | 6% |
| 2026-10-21 | 6% |
| 2026-10-20 | 7% |
| 2026-10-19 | 7% |
| 2026-10-18 | 6% |
| 2026-10-17 | 4% |
| 2026-10-16 | 4% |
| 2026-10-15 | 4% |
| 2026-10-14 | 6% |
| 2026-10-13 | 6% |
| 2026-10-12 | 6% |
| 2026-09-13 | 12% |
| 2026-09-12 | 12% |
| 2026-09-11 | 12% |
| 2026-09-10 | 10% |
| 2026-09-09 | 14% |
| 2026-08-26 | 28% |
| 2026-08-25 | 24% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 27 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 24% on August 25, 2026 to 6% on October 31, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 27 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 28%. The final reading of 6% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30” for 27 days, since August 25, 2026. As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 24% to 6%, ranging between 4% and 28% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.