Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on July 10, 2026 to 16% on July 31, 2026 — a change of 16 points.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 32%. The final reading of 16% sits at the bottom of that range.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 10, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 31, 2026

16%

Final tracked odds

As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.

▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Jul 30	Today	Move
Yes	18%	16%	▼ 2

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-07-31	16%
2026-07-30	18%
2026-07-29	20%
2026-07-19	20%
2026-07-18	22%
2026-07-17	22%
2026-07-16	24%
2026-07-15	24%
2026-07-10	32%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on July 10, 2026 to 16% on July 31, 2026 — a change of 16 points.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 32%. The final reading of 16% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30” for 9 days, since July 10, 2026. As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 32% to 16%, ranging between 16% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.