Final tracked odds
As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Everything Else · tracked since August 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 24, 2026
16%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 20 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 16% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 16% |
| 2026-08-20 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on August 20, 2026 to 16% on August 24, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31” for 2 days, since August 20, 2026. As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 14% to 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.