Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 10% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 10% |
| 2026-10-26 | 12% |
| 2026-10-25 | 12% |
| 2026-10-24 | 16% |
| 2026-10-23 | 18% |
| 2026-10-22 | 18% |
| 2026-10-21 | 20% |
| 2026-10-20 | 18% |
| 2026-10-19 | 18% |
| 2026-10-18 | 28% |
| 2026-10-17 | 24% |
| 2026-10-16 | 24% |
| 2026-10-15 | 24% |
| 2026-09-07 | 16% |
| 2026-09-06 | 16% |
| 2026-09-05 | 16% |
| 2026-09-04 | 16% |
| 2026-09-03 | 18% |
| 2026-08-28 | 18% |
| 2026-08-27 | 18% |
| 2026-08-26 | 18% |
| 2026-08-25 | 18% |
| 2026-08-24 | 18% |
| 2026-08-22 | 18% |
| 2026-08-21 | 18% |
| 2026-08-20 | 18% |
| 2026-08-19 | 18% |
| 2026-08-18 | 18% |
| 2026-08-17 | 18% |
| 2026-08-16 | 18% |
| 2026-08-15 | 18% |
| 2026-08-14 | 18% |
| 2026-08-12 | 18% |
| 2026-08-11 | 18% |
| 2026-08-10 | 18% |
| 2026-08-09 | 18% |
| 2026-08-08 | 18% |
| 2026-08-07 | 18% |
| 2026-08-06 | 18% |
| 2026-08-05 | 18% |
| 2026-08-04 | 18% |
| 2026-08-03 | 18% |
| 2026-08-02 | 18% |
| 2026-08-01 | 18% |
| 2026-07-19 | 24% |
| 2026-07-18 | 23% |
| 2026-07-17 | 23% |
| 2026-07-11 | 24% |
| 2026-07-10 | 24% |
| 2026-07-09 | 24% |
| 2026-07-07 | 22% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 51 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 7, 2026 to 10% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 51 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 28%. The final reading of 10% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31” for 51 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 22% to 10%, ranging between 10% and 28% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.