Final tracked odds
As of November 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 55%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Politics · tracked since October 11, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 2, 2026
55%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58% | 55% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 55% |
| 2026-10-18 | 58% |
| 2026-10-16 | 52% |
| 2026-10-11 | 60% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 55%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on October 11, 2026 to 55% on November 2, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 52% and 60%. The final reading of 55% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15” for 4 days, since October 11, 2026. As of November 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 55%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 60% to 55%, ranging between 52% and 60% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.