Final tracked odds
As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 26%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Politics · tracked since September 25, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 1, 2026
26%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 31 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | 26% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 26% |
| 2026-10-31 | 28% |
| 2026-10-30 | 26% |
| 2026-10-29 | 22% |
| 2026-10-04 | 32% |
| 2026-10-03 | 32% |
| 2026-10-02 | 32% |
| 2026-10-01 | 32% |
| 2026-09-25 | 44% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 26%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 44% on September 25, 2026 to 26% on November 1, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 44%. The final reading of 26% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31” for 9 days, since September 25, 2026. As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 26%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 44% to 26%, ranging between 22% and 44% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.