Final tracked odds
As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 37%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Politics · tracked since September 22, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 1, 2026
37%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 31 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38% | 37% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 37% |
| 2026-10-31 | 38% |
| 2026-10-30 | 37% |
| 2026-10-29 | 38% |
| 2026-10-28 | 36% |
| 2026-10-27 | 40% |
| 2026-10-26 | 38% |
| 2026-10-25 | 36% |
| 2026-10-24 | 36% |
| 2026-10-23 | 36% |
| 2026-10-22 | 37% |
| 2026-10-03 | 40% |
| 2026-10-02 | 38% |
| 2026-10-01 | 36% |
| 2026-09-22 | 56% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 37%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 56% on September 22, 2026 to 37% on November 1, 2026 — a change of 19 points.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 36% and 56%. The final reading of 37% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30” for 15 days, since September 22, 2026. As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 37%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 56% to 37%, ranging between 36% and 56% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.