Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 86%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since September 6, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
86%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 88% | 86% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 86% |
| 2026-11-02 | 88% |
| 2026-11-01 | 88% |
| 2026-10-31 | 87% |
| 2026-10-30 | 87% |
| 2026-10-29 | 86% |
| 2026-10-28 | 87% |
| 2026-10-27 | 88% |
| 2026-10-26 | 88% |
| 2026-10-25 | 90% |
| 2026-10-24 | 86% |
| 2026-10-23 | 86% |
| 2026-10-22 | 86% |
| 2026-10-21 | 88% |
| 2026-10-20 | 88% |
| 2026-10-19 | 88% |
| 2026-10-18 | 86% |
| 2026-10-08 | 88% |
| 2026-10-07 | 88% |
| 2026-10-06 | 84% |
| 2026-10-05 | 84% |
| 2026-10-04 | 84% |
| 2026-10-03 | 84% |
| 2026-10-02 | 84% |
| 2026-10-01 | 84% |
| 2026-09-30 | 82% |
| 2026-09-29 | 82% |
| 2026-09-28 | 83% |
| 2026-09-27 | 81% |
| 2026-09-26 | 84% |
| 2026-09-25 | 85% |
| 2026-09-24 | 92% |
| 2026-09-23 | 92% |
| 2026-09-22 | 92% |
| 2026-09-21 | 92% |
| 2026-09-20 | 88% |
| 2026-09-19 | 86% |
| 2026-09-18 | 86% |
| 2026-09-17 | 88% |
| 2026-09-16 | 87% |
| 2026-09-15 | 86% |
| 2026-09-14 | 88% |
| 2026-09-13 | 86% |
| 2026-09-12 | 86% |
| 2026-09-11 | 84% |
| 2026-09-10 | 82% |
| 2026-09-09 | 82% |
| 2026-09-07 | 82% |
| 2026-09-06 | 81% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 86%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 49 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 81% on September 6, 2026 to 86% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 49 tracked days the odds ranged between 81% and 92%. The final reading of 86% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch” for 49 days, since September 6, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 86%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 81% to 86%, ranging between 81% and 92% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.