Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.7%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
0.7%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 1.1% | 0.7% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Alphabet |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 0.7% |
| 2026-11-03 | 1.1% |
| 2026-11-02 | 0.9% |
| 2026-11-01 | 1.0% |
| 2026-10-31 | 0.8% |
| 2026-10-30 | 0.7% |
| 2026-10-29 | 2% |
| 2026-10-28 | 2% |
| 2026-10-27 | 1.4% |
| 2026-10-26 | 2% |
| 2026-10-25 | — |
| 2026-10-24 | — |
| 2026-10-23 | — |
| 2026-10-22 | — |
| 2026-10-21 | 2% |
| 2026-10-20 | 2% |
| 2026-10-19 | 2% |
| 2026-10-18 | 2% |
| 2026-10-17 | 2% |
| 2026-10-16 | 2% |
| 2026-10-15 | 2% |
| 2026-10-14 | 2% |
| 2026-10-13 | 2% |
| 2026-10-12 | 2% |
| 2026-10-11 | 2% |
| 2026-10-10 | 2% |
| 2026-10-09 | 2% |
| 2026-10-08 | 2% |
| 2026-10-07 | 3% |
| 2026-10-06 | 3% |
| 2026-10-05 | — |
| 2026-10-04 | — |
| 2026-10-03 | — |
| 2026-10-02 | — |
| 2026-10-01 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — |
| 2026-09-27 | — |
| 2026-09-26 | — |
| 2026-09-25 | — |
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| 2026-08-01 | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — |
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| 2026-07-28 | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — |
| 2026-07-23 | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 26 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 3% on October 6, 2026 to 0.7% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31” for 26 days, since July 20, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.7%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 3% to 0.7%, ranging between 0.7% and 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.