Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make Apple the most likely outcome at 13%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
13%
How the odds have moved
AppleMicrosoft
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 13% | 13% | — |
| Microsoft | 0.7% | 0.5% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Apple | Microsoft |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 13% | 0.5% |
| 2026-09-05 | 13% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-04 | 13% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-03 | 15% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-02 | 13% | 0.7% |
| 2026-09-01 | 13% | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-31 | — | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-30 | — | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-29 | — | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-28 | — | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-27 | — | 0.5% |
| 2026-08-26 | — | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 13% | — |
| 2026-08-18 | 12% | — |
| 2026-08-17 | 11% | — |
| 2026-08-16 | — | — |
| 2026-08-15 | — | — |
| 2026-08-14 | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | 15% | — |
| 2026-08-10 | 16% | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 16% | — |
| 2026-08-08 | 16% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | 16% | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 16% | — |
| 2026-08-05 | 18% | — |
| 2026-08-04 | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, Apple leads at 13%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 16 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on August 5, 2026 to 13% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 16 tracked days the odds ranged between 11% and 18%. The current reading of 13% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31” for 16 days, since July 20, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, Apple leads the field at 13%. The chance for Apple has fallen from 18% to 13%, ranging between 11% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.