Final tracked odds
As of July 31, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Microsoft leads at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 31, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
MicrosoftAlphabetTesla
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | — | 0.1% | — |
| Alphabet | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Tesla | — | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Microsoft | Alphabet | Tesla |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-30 | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | 2% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 0.1% | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31” for 3 days, since July 8, 2026. As of July 31, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Microsoft leads at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for the leading outcome has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.