The Morning Line

Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET

0.1%

Today’s odds

As of November 4, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Frank Donovan leads at 0.1%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Frank DonovanRichard GrenellVladimir Padrino López
0%25%50%75%100%Aug 7Aug 29Sep 20Oct 13Nov 4Frank Donovan — Aug 7: 0.1%Frank Donovan — Nov 4: 0.1%0.1%Richard Grenell — Aug 7: 0.1%Richard Grenell — Nov 4: 0.1%Vladimir Padrino López — Aug 7: 0.2%Vladimir Padrino López — Nov 4: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeNov 3TodayMove
Frank Donovan0.1%0.1%—
Richard Grenell0.1%0.1%—
Vladimir Padrino López0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateFrank DonovanRichard GrenellVladimir Padrino López
2026-11-040.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-11-030.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-11-020.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-11-010.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-310.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-300.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-290.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-280.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-270.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-260.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-250.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-240.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-230.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-220.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-210.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-200.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-190.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-180.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-170.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-160.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-150.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-140.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-130.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-120.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-110.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-100.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-090.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-080.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-070.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-060.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-050.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-040.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-030.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-020.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-010.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-300.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-290.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-280.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-270.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-260.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-250.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-240.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-230.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-220.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-210.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-200.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-09-190.1%0.1%—
2026-09-180.1%0.1%—
2026-09-170.1%0.1%—
2026-09-160.1%0.1%—
2026-09-150.1%0.1%—
2026-09-140.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-130.1%0.1%—
2026-09-120.1%0.1%—
2026-09-110.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-100.1%0.1%—
2026-09-090.1%0.1%—
2026-09-080.1%0.1%—
2026-09-070.1%0.1%—
2026-09-060.1%0.1%—
2026-09-050.1%0.1%—
2026-09-040.1%0.1%—
2026-09-030.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-020.1%0.1%—
2026-09-010.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-08-310.1%0.1%—
2026-08-300.1%0.1%—
2026-08-290.1%0.1%—
2026-08-280.1%0.1%—
2026-08-270.1%0.1%—
2026-08-260.1%0.1%—
2026-08-250.1%0.1%—
2026-08-240.1%0.1%—
2026-08-230.1%0.1%—
2026-08-220.1%0.1%—
2026-08-210.1%0.1%—
2026-08-200.1%0.1%—
2026-08-190.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-08-180.1%0.1%—
2026-08-170.1%0.1%—
2026-08-160.1%0.1%—
2026-08-150.1%0.1%—
2026-08-140.1%0.1%—
2026-08-130.1%0.1%—
2026-08-120.1%0.1%—
2026-08-110.1%0.1%—
2026-08-100.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-090.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-08-080.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-08-070.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-08-060.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-08-050.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-08-040.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-08-030.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-08-020.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-08-010.1%0.1%0.2%
2026-07-310.1%0.1%—
2026-07-300.1%0.1%—
2026-07-290.1%0.1%—
2026-07-280.1%0.1%—
2026-07-270.1%0.1%—
2026-07-260.1%0.1%—
2026-07-250.1%0.1%—
2026-07-240.1%0.1%—
2026-07-230.1%0.1%—
2026-07-220.1%0.1%—
2026-07-210.1%0.1%—
2026-07-200.1%0.1%—
2026-07-190.1%0.1%—
2026-07-180.1%0.1%—
2026-07-170.1%0.1%—
2026-07-160.1%0.1%—
2026-07-150.1%0.1%—
2026-07-140.1%0.1%—
2026-07-130.1%0.1%—
2026-07-120.1%0.1%—
2026-07-110.1%0.1%—
2026-07-100.1%0.1%—
2026-07-090.1%0.1%—
2026-07-080.1%0.1%—
2026-07-070.1%0.1%—

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 — what are the odds?
As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026 — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 121 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on November 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026” for 121 days, since July 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Frank Donovan leads at 0.1%. The chance for the leading outcome has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.