Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds make Pedro Sánchez the most likely outcome at 13%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Politics · tracked since October 6, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
13%
How the odds have moved
Pedro SánchezIsabel Díaz Ayuso
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Sánchez | — | 13% | — |
| Isabel Díaz Ayuso | — | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Pedro Sánchez | Isabel Díaz Ayuso |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 13% | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-03 | — | — |
| 2026-11-02 | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-11-01 | — | 0.2% |
| 2026-10-31 | — | — |
| 2026-10-30 | — | — |
| 2026-10-29 | — | — |
| 2026-10-28 | — | — |
| 2026-10-27 | — | — |
| 2026-10-26 | — | — |
| 2026-10-25 | — | — |
| 2026-10-24 | — | — |
| 2026-10-23 | — | — |
| 2026-10-22 | — | — |
| 2026-10-21 | — | — |
| 2026-10-20 | — | — |
| 2026-10-19 | — | — |
| 2026-10-18 | — | — |
| 2026-10-17 | — | — |
| 2026-10-16 | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | — | — |
| 2026-10-14 | — | — |
| 2026-10-13 | — | 0.8% |
| 2026-10-12 | — | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-11 | — | — |
| 2026-10-10 | — | — |
| 2026-10-08 | — | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-07 | 22% | 0.1% |
| 2026-10-06 | 18% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, Pedro Sánchez leads at 13%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on October 6, 2026 to 13% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 13% and 22%. The current reading of 13% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Spain” for 3 days, since October 6, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, Pedro Sánchez leads the field at 13%. The chance for Pedro Sánchez has fallen from 18% to 13%, ranging between 13% and 22% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.