Final tracked odds
As of October 25, 2026, market-consensus odds make Flávio Bolsonaro the most likely outcome at 82%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 25, 2026
82%
How the odds have moved
Flávio BolsonaroLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 24 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 83% | 82% | ▼ 1 |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 18% | 18% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Flávio Bolsonaro | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 82% | 18% |
| 2026-10-24 | 83% | 18% |
| 2026-10-23 | 76% | 24% |
| 2026-10-22 | 78% | 22% |
| 2026-10-21 | 78% | 22% |
| 2026-10-20 | 77% | 22% |
| 2026-10-19 | 77% | 24% |
| 2026-10-18 | 80% | 20% |
| 2026-10-17 | 77% | 24% |
| 2026-10-16 | 77% | 22% |
| 2026-10-15 | 76% | 24% |
| 2026-10-14 | 85% | 14% |
| 2026-10-13 | 87% | 14% |
| 2026-10-12 | 87% | 12% |
| 2026-10-11 | 88% | 12% |
| 2026-10-10 | 88% | 12% |
| 2026-10-09 | 87% | 12% |
| 2026-10-08 | 86% | 14% |
| 2026-10-07 | 85% | 14% |
| 2026-10-06 | 85% | 16% |
| 2026-10-05 | 82% | 18% |
| 2026-10-04 | 62% | 38% |
| 2026-10-03 | 57% | 42% |
| 2026-10-02 | — | 42% |
| 2026-10-01 | — | — |
| 2026-09-30 | — | — |
| 2026-09-29 | — | — |
| 2026-09-28 | — | — |
| 2026-09-27 | — | — |
| 2026-09-26 | — | — |
| 2026-09-25 | — | — |
| 2026-09-24 | — | — |
| 2026-09-23 | — | — |
| 2026-09-22 | — | — |
| 2026-09-21 | — | — |
| 2026-09-20 | — | — |
| 2026-09-19 | — | — |
| 2026-09-18 | — | — |
| 2026-09-17 | — | — |
| 2026-09-16 | — | — |
| 2026-09-15 | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | — | — |
| 2026-09-13 | — | — |
| 2026-09-12 | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — | — |
| 2026-09-06 | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | — | — |
| 2026-09-03 | — | — |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | — | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | — | — |
| 2026-08-15 | — | — |
| 2026-08-14 | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | — | — |
| 2026-08-11 | — | — |
| 2026-08-10 | — | — |
| 2026-08-09 | — | — |
| 2026-08-08 | — | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — | — |
| 2026-08-06 | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | — | — |
| 2026-08-04 | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 25, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro led at 82%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 57% on October 3, 2026 to 82% on October 25, 2026 — a change of 25 points.
- Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 57% and 88%. The final reading of 82% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election” for 23 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 25, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro leads the field at 82%. The final tracked chance for Flávio Bolsonaro has risen from 57% to 82%, ranging between 57% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 25, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.