Final tracked odds
As of October 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make Gary McCoy the most likely outcome at 89%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election?
Politics · tracked since October 2, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 6, 2026
89%
How the odds have moved
Gary McCoyMichael NguyenDarshini PatelManny Yekutiel
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gary McCoy | 88% | 89% | ▲ 2 |
| Michael Nguyen | 5% | 4% | ▼ 1 |
| Darshini Patel | 4% | 4% | — |
| Manny Yekutiel | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Gary McCoy | Michael Nguyen | Darshini Patel | Manny Yekutiel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 89% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 2026-10-05 | 88% | 5% | 4% | 2% |
| 2026-10-04 | 89% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 2026-10-03 | 94% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 2026-10-02 | 94% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 6, 2026, Gary McCoy led at 89%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 94% on October 2, 2026 to 89% on October 6, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 88% and 94%. The final reading of 89% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election” for 5 days, since October 2, 2026. As of October 6, 2026, Gary McCoy leads the field at 89%. The final tracked chance for Gary McCoy has fallen from 94% to 89%, ranging between 88% and 94% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 6, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.