The Morning Line

Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 3, 2026

64%

Final tracked odds

As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds make Troy Jackson the most likely outcome at 64%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 64% on August 3, 2026. Troy Jackson won.

How the odds have moved

Troy JacksonSusan Collins
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 14Jul 21Jul 27Aug 3Troy Jackson — Jul 7: 32%Troy Jackson — Jul 8: 32%Troy Jackson — Jul 9: 36%Troy Jackson — Jul 10: 32%Troy Jackson — Jul 11: 38%Troy Jackson — Jul 12: 44%Troy Jackson — Jul 13: 54%Troy Jackson — Jul 14: 54%Troy Jackson — Jul 15: 52%Troy Jackson — Jul 16: 52%Troy Jackson — Jul 17: 57%Troy Jackson — Jul 18: 56%Troy Jackson — Jul 19: 66%Troy Jackson — Jul 20: 66%Troy Jackson — Jul 21: 64%Troy Jackson — Jul 22: 64%Troy Jackson — Jul 23: 64%Troy Jackson — Jul 24: 64%Troy Jackson — Jul 25: 62%Troy Jackson — Jul 26: 62%Troy Jackson — Jul 27: 62%Troy Jackson — Jul 28: 62%Troy Jackson — Jul 29: 62%Troy Jackson — Jul 30: 63%Troy Jackson — Jul 31: 62%Troy Jackson — Aug 1: 64%Troy Jackson — Aug 2: 62%Troy Jackson — Aug 3: 64%64%Susan Collins — Jul 7: 44%Susan Collins — Jul 8: 42%Susan Collins — Jul 9: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 10: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 11: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 12: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 13: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 14: 32%Susan Collins — Jul 15: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 16: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 17: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 18: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 19: 34%Susan Collins — Jul 20: 36%Susan Collins — Jul 21: 36%Susan Collins — Jul 22: 36%Susan Collins — Jul 23: 36%Susan Collins — Jul 24: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 25: 39%Susan Collins — Jul 26: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 27: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 28: 38%Susan Collins — Jul 29: 36%Susan Collins — Jul 30: 36%Susan Collins — Jul 31: 38%Susan Collins — Aug 1: 38%Susan Collins — Aug 2: 38%Susan Collins — Aug 3: 36%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 2TodayMove
Troy Jackson62%64%▲ 1
Susan Collins38%36%▼ 1
Full history table
DateTroy JacksonSusan Collins
2026-08-0364%36%
2026-08-0262%38%
2026-08-0164%38%
2026-07-3162%38%
2026-07-3063%36%
2026-07-2962%36%
2026-07-2862%38%
2026-07-2762%38%
2026-07-2662%38%
2026-07-2562%39%
2026-07-2464%38%
2026-07-2364%36%
2026-07-2264%36%
2026-07-2164%36%
2026-07-2066%36%
2026-07-1966%34%
2026-07-1856%34%
2026-07-1757%34%
2026-07-1652%34%
2026-07-1552%34%
2026-07-1454%32%
2026-07-1354%34%
2026-07-1244%38%
2026-07-1138%38%
2026-07-1032%38%
2026-07-0936%38%
2026-07-0832%42%
2026-07-0732%44%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, August 3, 2026, Troy Jackson led at 64%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 28 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on July 7, 2026 to 64% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 32 points.
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 28 tracked days the odds ranged between 32% and 66%. The final reading of 64% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election” for 28 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, Troy Jackson leads the field at 64%. The final tracked chance for Troy Jackson has risen from 32% to 64%, ranging between 32% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.