Everything Else · tracked since October 6, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 7, 2026
Final tracked odds
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 10% on October 7, 2026. It didn't happen.
| Outcome | Oct 6 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before November 1, 2026 | 10% | 10% | ▼ 1 |
| Date | Before November 1, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | 10% |
| 2026-10-06 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before November 1, 2026” for 2 days, since October 6, 2026. As of October 7, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 7, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.