Final tracked odds
As of October 7, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 20%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since October 6, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 7, 2026
20%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 6 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before January 1, 2027 | 23% | 20% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Before January 1, 2027 |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | 20% |
| 2026-10-06 | 23% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 7, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 20%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 23% on October 6, 2026 to 20% on October 7, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will a confirmed human case of pneumonic plague be reported in the United States before January 1, 2027” for 2 days, since October 6, 2026. As of October 7, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 20%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 23% to 20%, ranging between 20% and 23% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 7, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.