Final tracked odds
As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 92%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 30, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 9, 2026
92%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 92% | 92% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | 92% |
| 2026-08-08 | 92% |
| 2026-08-07 | 92% |
| 2026-08-06 | 92% |
| 2026-07-30 | 92% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 9, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 92%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 5 tracked days the odds held near 92%, ending at 92% on August 9, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026” for 5 days, since July 30, 2026. As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 92%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 92% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 9, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.