Final tracked odds
As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress?
Politics · tracked since August 25, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 1, 2026
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 31 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Jeffries | 8% | 8% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Hakeem Jeffries |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 8% |
| 2026-08-31 | 8% |
| 2026-08-30 | 8% |
| 2026-08-27 | 10% |
| 2026-08-26 | 12% |
| 2026-08-25 | 6% |
| 2026-08-24 * | 2% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on August 25, 2026 to 8% on September 1, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 12%. The final reading of 8% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress” for 6 days, since August 25, 2026. As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 6% to 8%, ranging between 6% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.