Politics · tracked since October 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 19, 2026
Final tracked odds
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What happened: The market said 2% on October 19, 2026. It didn't happen.
| Outcome | Oct 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | — |
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 2% |
| 2026-10-14 | 2% |
| 2026-10-13 | 2% |
| 2026-10-12 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will James Talarico drop out of the 2026 Texas Senate race before Nov 3, 2026” for 4 days, since October 12, 2026. As of October 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.