Will HDZ coalition finish 2nd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will HDZ coalition finish 2nd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since September 15, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 3% on September 28, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 22	Today	Move
HDZ coalition	3%	3%	—

Full history table

Date	HDZ coalition
2026-09-28	3%
2026-09-22	3%
2026-09-21	2%
2026-09-17	4%
2026-09-16	4%
2026-09-15	2%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will HDZ coalition finish 2nd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will HDZ coalition finish 2nd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election — how much did the odds move?: Barely. Across 6 tracked days the odds held near 2%, ending at 3% on September 28, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will HDZ coalition finish 2nd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election” for 6 days, since September 15, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 2% to 3%, ranging between 2% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.