Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 2, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
0.3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 0.3% |
| 2026-08-30 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-29 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-27 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-26 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-25 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-24 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-23 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-22 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-21 | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-20 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-19 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-17 | 1.2% |
| 2026-08-16 | 1.0% |
| 2026-08-15 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-14 | 1.4% |
| 2026-08-13 | 1.5% |
| 2026-08-12 | 2% |
| 2026-08-04 | 2% |
| 2026-08-03 | 3% |
| 2026-08-02 | 3% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 3% on August 2, 2026 to 0.3% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026” for 23 days, since August 2, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.3%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 3% to 0.3%, ranging between 0.1% and 3% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.