The Morning Line

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Everything Else · tracked since September 7, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET

0.1%

Today’s odds

As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 11Sep 19Oct 2Nov 4Yes — Sep 7: 0.1%Yes — Sep 8: 0.1%Yes — Sep 9: 0.1%Yes — Sep 10: 0.1%Yes — Sep 11: 0.1%Yes — Sep 12: 0.1%Yes — Sep 13: 0.1%Yes — Sep 14: 0.1%Yes — Sep 19: 0.1%Yes — Sep 20: 0.1%Yes — Sep 26: 0.1%Yes — Sep 27: 0.1%Yes — Oct 2: 0.1%Yes — Oct 5: 0.1%Yes — Oct 31: 0.1%Yes — Nov 2: 0.1%Yes — Nov 4: 0.1%0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeNov 2TodayMove
Yes0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateYes
2026-11-040.1%
2026-11-020.1%
2026-10-310.1%
2026-10-050.1%
2026-10-020.1%
2026-09-270.1%
2026-09-260.1%
2026-09-200.1%
2026-09-190.1%
2026-09-140.1%
2026-09-130.1%
2026-09-120.1%
2026-09-110.1%
2026-09-100.1%
2026-09-090.1%
2026-09-080.1%
2026-09-070.1%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — what are the odds?
As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 17 tracked days the odds held near 0.1%, ending at 0.1% on November 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026” for 17 days, since September 7, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The chance for a yes has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

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