Today’s odds
As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 16, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET
5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | 5% |
| 2026-11-02 | 5% |
| 2026-11-01 | 6% |
| 2026-10-31 | 5% |
| 2026-10-29 | 6% |
| 2026-09-27 | 8% |
| 2026-09-26 | 10% |
| 2026-09-25 | 9% |
| 2026-09-22 | 14% |
| 2026-09-21 | 10% |
| 2026-09-19 | 10% |
| 2026-09-18 | 11% |
| 2026-09-17 | 12% |
| 2026-09-16 | 11% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 14 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 11% on September 16, 2026 to 5% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 14 tracked days the odds ranged between 5% and 14%. The current reading of 5% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026” for 14 days, since September 16, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 11% to 5%, ranging between 5% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.