The Morning Line

Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 3, 2026

98%

Final tracked odds

As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 98% on August 3, 2026. Reform UK won.

How the odds have moved

0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 14Jul 21Jul 27Aug 3Reform UK — Jul 7: 96%Reform UK — Jul 8: 92%Reform UK — Jul 9: 92%Reform UK — Jul 10: 92%Reform UK — Jul 11: 92%Reform UK — Jul 12: 90%Reform UK — Jul 13: 94%Reform UK — Jul 14: 92%Reform UK — Jul 15: 96%Reform UK — Jul 16: 96%Reform UK — Jul 17: 96%Reform UK — Jul 18: 96%Reform UK — Jul 19: 96%Reform UK — Jul 20: 96%Reform UK — Jul 21: 96%Reform UK — Jul 22: 96%Reform UK — Jul 23: 96%Reform UK — Jul 24: 96%Reform UK — Jul 25: 96%Reform UK — Jul 26: 96%Reform UK — Jul 27: 96%Reform UK — Jul 28: 96%Reform UK — Jul 29: 96%Reform UK — Jul 30: 98%Reform UK — Jul 31: 98%Reform UK — Aug 1: 98%Reform UK — Aug 2: 98%Reform UK — Aug 3: 98%98%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 2TodayMove
Reform UK98%98%—
Full history table
DateReform UK
2026-08-0398%
2026-08-0298%
2026-08-0198%
2026-07-3198%
2026-07-3098%
2026-07-2996%
2026-07-2896%
2026-07-2796%
2026-07-2696%
2026-07-2596%
2026-07-2496%
2026-07-2396%
2026-07-2296%
2026-07-2196%
2026-07-2096%
2026-07-1996%
2026-07-1896%
2026-07-1796%
2026-07-1696%
2026-07-1596%
2026-07-1492%
2026-07-1394%
2026-07-1290%
2026-07-1192%
2026-07-1092%
2026-07-0992%
2026-07-0892%
2026-07-0796%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 28 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 96% on July 7, 2026 to 98% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 28 tracked days the odds ranged between 90% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Reform UK win the 2026 Clacton by-election” for 28 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 98%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 96% to 98%, ranging between 90% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.