Today’s odds
As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 42%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 1, 2026 · last updated 11:43 AM ET
42%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44% | 42% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 42% |
| 2026-09-05 | 44% |
| 2026-09-04 | 42% |
| 2026-09-03 | 38% |
| 2026-09-02 | 40% |
| 2026-09-01 | 39% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 42%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 39% on September 1, 2026 to 42% on September 6, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026” for 6 days, since September 1, 2026. As of September 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 42%. The chance for a yes has risen from 39% to 42%, ranging between 38% and 44% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.