Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 28, 2026, Before Jan 1, 2027 led at 78%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on October 27, 2026 to 78% on October 28, 2026 — a change of 18 points.

Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 60% and 78%. The final reading of 78% sits at the top of that range.

Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since October 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 28, 2026

78%

Final tracked odds

As of October 28, 2026, market-consensus odds make Before Jan 1, 2027 the most likely outcome at 78%.

▲ 19 since the previous update. ▲ 19 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027Before Nov 21, 2026Before Nov 14, 2026

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 27	Today	Move
Before Jan 1, 2027	60%	78%	▲ 19
Before Nov 21, 2026	52%	72%	▲ 20
Before Nov 14, 2026	31%	36%	▲ 5

Full history table

Date	Before Jan 1, 2027	Before Nov 21, 2026	Before Nov 14, 2026
2026-10-28	78%	72%	36%
2026-10-27	60%	52%	31%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 28, 2026, Before Jan 1, 2027 led at 78%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on October 27, 2026 to 78% on October 28, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 60% and 78%. The final reading of 78% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth” for 2 days, since October 27, 2026. As of October 28, 2026, Before Jan 1, 2027 leads the field at 78%. The final tracked chance for Before Jan 1, 2027 has risen from 60% to 78%, ranging between 60% and 78% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.