Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 12%?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 12%?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since August 19, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 24, 2026

17%

Final tracked odds

As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 17%.

▲ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 37 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 19% on August 24, 2026. It didn't happen.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 21	Today	Move
Darline Graham, ≥12%	15%	17%	▲ 2

Full history table

Date	Darline Graham, ≥12%
2026-08-24	17%
2026-08-21	15%
2026-08-20	24%
2026-08-19	40%
2026-08-18 *	54%

* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 12% — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 17%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 12% — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 40% on August 19, 2026 to 17% on August 24, 2026 — a change of 23 points.
Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 12% — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 15% and 40%. The final reading of 17% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 12%” for 4 days, since August 19, 2026. As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 17%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 40% to 17%, ranging between 15% and 40% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.