Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since October 9, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 12, 2026

14%

Final tracked odds

As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.

▼ 6 since the previous update. ▲ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 14% on October 12, 2026. Before Nov 1, 2026 won.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 11	Today	Move
Before Nov 1, 2026	20%	14%	▼ 6

Full history table

Date	Before Nov 1, 2026
2026-10-12	14%
2026-10-11	20%
2026-10-10	32%
2026-10-09	8%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on October 9, 2026 to 14% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 32%. The final reading of 14% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Nov 1, 2026” for 4 days, since October 9, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 8% to 14%, ranging between 8% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 12, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.