Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 1.4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Politics · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
1.4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.1% | 1.4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 1.4% |
| 2026-11-02 | 1.1% |
| 2026-11-01 | 0.8% |
| 2026-10-30 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-29 | 0.9% |
| 2026-10-19 | 3% |
| 2026-10-18 | 3% |
| 2026-10-17 | 3% |
| 2026-10-16 | 3% |
| 2026-10-15 | 3% |
| 2026-10-14 | 3% |
| 2026-10-13 | 2% |
| 2026-10-12 | 2% |
| 2026-10-11 | 2% |
| 2026-10-10 | 2% |
| 2026-10-09 | 2% |
| 2026-10-08 | 3% |
| 2026-10-07 | 2% |
| 2026-10-06 | 2% |
| 2026-10-05 | 2% |
| 2026-10-02 | 2% |
| 2026-08-01 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 1.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 22 tracked days the odds held near 2%, ending at 1.4% on November 3, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections” for 22 days, since August 1, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 1.4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.