Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 55%.
▲ 17 since the previous update. ▲ 17 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Politics · tracked since July 19, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
55%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38% | 55% | ▲ 17 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 55% |
| 2026-10-18 | 38% |
| 2026-10-17 | 38% |
| 2026-10-11 | 38% |
| 2026-10-10 | 38% |
| 2026-10-08 | 38% |
| 2026-10-06 | 38% |
| 2026-10-05 | 38% |
| 2026-10-04 | 38% |
| 2026-10-03 | 38% |
| 2026-10-02 | 38% |
| 2026-10-01 | 38% |
| 2026-07-19 | 22% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 55%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 19, 2026 to 55% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 33 points.
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 55%. The final reading of 55% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections” for 13 days, since July 19, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 55%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 22% to 55%, ranging between 22% and 55% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.