Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Politics · tracked since October 31, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 0.1% |
| 2026-11-02 | 0.4% |
| 2026-11-01 | 0.4% |
| 2026-10-31 | 0.2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections” for 4 days, since October 31, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 0.2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.