Final tracked odds
As of August 18, 2026, market-consensus odds make Before Jan 1, 2027 the most likely outcome at 94%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act?
Politics · tracked since July 11, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 18, 2026
94%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027Before Oct 1, 2026
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 17 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 94% | 94% | — |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 88% | 85% | ▼ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Oct 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | 94% | 85% |
| 2026-08-17 | 94% | 88% |
| 2026-08-16 | 94% | 88% |
| 2026-08-15 | 94% | 88% |
| 2026-08-14 | 94% | 88% |
| 2026-08-13 | 94% | 88% |
| 2026-08-12 | 95% | 86% |
| 2026-08-11 | 95% | 86% |
| 2026-08-10 | 94% | 88% |
| 2026-08-09 | 94% | 90% |
| 2026-08-08 | 94% | 91% |
| 2026-08-07 | 88% | 72% |
| 2026-08-04 | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — | — |
| 2026-07-31 | — | — |
| 2026-07-30 | — | — |
| 2026-07-29 | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | — | — |
| 2026-07-26 | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | — | — |
| 2026-07-23 | — | — |
| 2026-07-22 | — | — |
| 2026-07-21 | — | — |
| 2026-07-20 | — | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 18, 2026, Before Jan 1, 2027 led at 94%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 88% on August 7, 2026 to 94% on August 18, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 88% and 95%. The final reading of 94% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act” for 12 days, since July 11, 2026. As of August 18, 2026, Before Jan 1, 2027 leads the field at 94%. The final tracked chance for Before Jan 1, 2027 has risen from 88% to 94%, ranging between 88% and 95% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 18, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.