Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 33 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 8, 2026 to 8% on September 4, 2026 — a change of 10 points.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 33 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 18%. The final reading of 8% sits at the bottom of that range.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 4, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 3	Today	Move
Yes	9%	8%	▼ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-04	8%
2026-09-03	9%
2026-09-02	9%
2026-09-01	10%
2026-08-17	12%
2026-08-16	12%
2026-08-14	12%
2026-08-13	12%
2026-08-12	12%
2026-08-11	12%
2026-08-10	12%
2026-08-09	12%
2026-08-08	12%
2026-08-07	12%
2026-08-06	12%
2026-08-05	12%
2026-08-04	12%
2026-08-03	13%
2026-08-02	14%
2026-08-01	15%
2026-07-31	14%
2026-07-30	14%
2026-07-29	14%
2026-07-28	12%
2026-07-27	14%
2026-07-23	16%
2026-07-22	17%
2026-07-21	16%
2026-07-20	14%
2026-07-15	18%
2026-07-13	12%
2026-07-12	18%
2026-07-08	18%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 33 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 8, 2026 to 8% on September 4, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 33 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 18%. The final reading of 8% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026” for 33 days, since July 8, 2026. As of September 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 18% to 8%, ranging between 8% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.