Final tracked odds
As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 80%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 9, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 31, 2026
80%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 80% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 80% |
| 2026-08-30 | 80% |
| 2026-08-29 | 80% |
| 2026-08-28 | 81% |
| 2026-08-27 | 76% |
| 2026-08-26 | 78% |
| 2026-08-25 | 79% |
| 2026-08-24 | 76% |
| 2026-08-23 | 75% |
| 2026-08-22 | 73% |
| 2026-08-21 | 66% |
| 2026-08-20 | 63% |
| 2026-07-26 | 45% |
| 2026-07-25 | 45% |
| 2026-07-24 | 47% |
| 2026-07-19 | 53% |
| 2026-07-18 | 52% |
| 2026-07-17 | 59% |
| 2026-07-16 | 57% |
| 2026-07-14 | 25% |
| 2026-07-11 | 71% |
| 2026-07-10 | 71% |
| 2026-07-09 | 71% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 80%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 71% on July 9, 2026 to 80% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
- Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 25% and 81%. The final reading of 80% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026” for 23 days, since July 9, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 80%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 71% to 80%, ranging between 25% and 81% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.