Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, November 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on October 1, 2026 to 7% on November 1, 2026 — a change of 7 points.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 7% and 29%. The final reading of 7% sits at the bottom of that range.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since October 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 1, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 7%.

▼ 22 since the previous update. ▼ 22 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 5	Today	Move
Yes	29%	7%	▼ 22

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-11-01	7%
2026-10-05	29%
2026-10-02	18%
2026-10-01	14%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, November 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 7%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on October 1, 2026 to 7% on November 1, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 7% and 29%. The final reading of 7% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice” for 4 days, since October 1, 2026. As of November 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 7%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 7%, ranging between 7% and 29% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 1, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.